Webs, Bubbles and Don’t Mention the War

March 29, 2006

BTW, don’t think for one minute that I’m down on Web 2.0 stuff from my GETV post. I’m a Flickr addict, Del.icio.us user, Technorati member, Digger, Gmail user, blogger, etc. The technology is great, the ideas are cool and work and the buzz is really something.

However, I loathe the unoriginal, so I don’t appreciate the copycat efforts and you see a lot of them scrolling down your TechCrunch feed. Putting a twist on an existing theme is great, improving something likewise, but it has to be original, better and all that.

On the Bubble 2.0 aspect, I don’t think it will be like the Dotcom crash but there is the risk that billions will be poured into things that will bomb and that it will damage the entire tech industry and US economy as it did before, with big consequences for everyone, even little old me.

I need the US economy to do well because I make all my sales in US Dollars and the current US deficit is making the dollar worth much less than I’d imagined possible when I started out. Even now, what I get paid for a copy of my software can vary by 15% over the course of a few months.

A chart of my own unit sales would only fully make sense set against a chart like this, so it doesn’t matter how many copies I sell as much as the amount I actually get for those sales. I try to alleviate this by doing things like hosting my website in the US, so my costs rise and fall with the exchange rate.

The dollar is worth 25% less now than when I quit my job and it has been as bad as 30%. I hope things pick up, but given the size of the US deficit that is only going to happen if the Pound weakens… and it’s heading that direction, but that’s not good for me here. With my feet on both continents will I ever win?

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2 Responses to “Webs, Bubbles and Don’t Mention the War”

  1. hanso Says:

    Funding both sides of the war? Or, rather, being funded by both sides of the war? That is if it is a war at all.

    Inferring, however, from the current Republican definition of war—as relegated to mean anything a government wants to fool the governed, the Pound Sterling-USD exchange rate might as well be a war. Some may argue that exchange rates are not in control of any government, but what’s to have control if increasing budget deficit isn’t? Hence, by commencing the “war” on terror, without having made any progress in “war” on drugs, and continuing to be at “war” with the most sense-making policy of “it’s the economy, stupid!”, the US government is at “war” with its own currency. And thanks to the very reciprocal definition of exchange rates, the Great Britain has inadvertently come to fight the US in a “war”.

    Should we, if only for intellectual exercise, consider both US and UK as forming one giant economy—further complication called “civil war” aside, the loss is still borne by US and UK. “Let the loss lie where it falls”, one might say, and at this time he is the Chinese. The loss, under the ever shrinking global economy, does not fall on us, but is rather a windfall to those who don’t border the Atlantic.

    You might as well have operated out of China or Hong Kong, and you wouldn’t have to deal with the women’s whim of exchange rates. Or, alternatively, have you considered outsourcing Feeder to Bangalore, India?

  2. Steve Says:

    I said don’t mention the war! 😉

    The weaker dollar does have advantages for the US because it makes US products cheaper abroad. The US is also a more popular holiday destination these days for the same reason. (Just what everyone loves – more tourists!)

    The UK economy is also artificially propped up by being billions in the red and all that money floating around is having a crazy effect on house prices, etc, which is why I’m living on a council estate amongst drunks and drug dealers.

    I don’t know where I’m going with this, but you’re right, we all know where that money is going, who’s bankrolling the deficit (perversely, China) and why.


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